Au Sable, MI, United States
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Lat: 44.41N | Lon: 83.34W |
Wx Zone: MIZ036 |
ICAO Used: | County: Iosco | Forecast Office: KAPX | FIPS: 026069
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Au Sable, MI Fire Weather Forecast:
000
FNUS53 KAPX 181150
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011
...GUSTY WINDS TODAY/RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL MOVE
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WHICH WILL END THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW SOME DRYING TODAY...AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE RAIN...AS A NEW
STORM MOVES INTO MICHIGAN. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE 50 PERCENT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
PLEASE NOTE: THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON WILL OFFICIALLY END TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FINAL FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THE SEASON.
SPOT FORECASTS REMAIN AVAILABLE AT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE WINTER.
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-182130-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
650 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-182130-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
650 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-182130-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
650 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 39 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 36 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 24
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.
$$
MIZ031>033-182130-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
650 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-182130-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
650 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SUNDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN OR CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
JL
