Ashley, MI, United States (48806) |
| Lat: 43.19N | Lon: 84.48W | Wx Zone: MIZ052 | ICAO Used: | County: Gratiot | Forecast Office: KGRR | FIPS: 026057 |
Ashley, MI Area Forecast Discussion:
000 FXUS63 KGRR 081115 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 615 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(354 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012) HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WINTER RETURNS TO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING SOME SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S OVER THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(354 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012) (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS FRIDAY. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT TRAVERSING THE REGION AND WILL MOVE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AS AN ARC OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF HUDSON BAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. THERE WON/T BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT I COULD ENVISION SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY ENDING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. H8 TEMPS QUICKLY FALL FROM -7C AROUND 12Z TO -19C BY 00Z. THIS WILL CREATE HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST SNOW POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE OVER THE NW CWA. INVERSION HTS AOB 5K FT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL OVER THE NW CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM...(354 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012) (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW GOES NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS COULD GET CLIPPED WITH MEASURABLE SNOW SO HAVE HIGHER POPS THERE. FLOW COMES BACK TO WEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED BY THAT TIME AND WARM ADVECTION IS BEGINNING. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE RETURNS AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST LATE MONDAY AND AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(615 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012) SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN THIN STRATUS THIS MORNING. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE...(354 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012) WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ISSUED A SCA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY...(354 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012) NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && $$ SYNOPSIS: 93 SHORT TERM: 93 LONG TERM: OSTUNO AVIATION: OSTUNO MARINE: 93 HYDROLOGY: 93