Almont Township, MI, United States |
| Lat: 42.92N | Lon: 83.04W | Wx Zone: MIZ062 | ICAO Used: | County: Lapeer | Forecast Office: KDTX | FIPS: 026087 |
Almont Township, MI Area Forecast Discussion:
000 FXUS63 KDTX 081059 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 559 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OFF OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE WEST. EARLY MORNING CIGS AOA 10KFT WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AS IT EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 318 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS...EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...WHICH IS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY SHIFTS EAST WITH IT. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A SPRAWLING 1030MB ANTICYCLONE WILL EXPAND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LACK OF ANY CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE/JET STREAM WILL ESSENTIALLY LOCK THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER...SO INCREASING WESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. NO REAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO REACH/ECLIPSE 40 IN MANY AREAS. A MYRIAD OF UPPER LEVEL JET CORES WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. THE END RESULT OF THIS OCCURRING IS TO ALLOW AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION TO BLAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ARE FORECASTED TO ALIGN IN LOCKSTEP WITH SHARP POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 900-700MB WITH GOOD SATURATION IN THE MIXED LAYER. CHANGE IN ORIENTATION OF THE JET CORES ALONG WITH THE TRENDING OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY RIBBON TO NEUTRAL TILT SUGGESTS THAT FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FOR A TIME. THIS ALL LEADS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT GIVEN FAST MOTION OF THE FGEN FORCING. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH APPEARS REASONABLE. THE THREAT FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE QUICKLY RELEGATED TO THOSE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON. THE QUICK EROSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN THUMB/PORT HURON MAY ONLY SEE A 6 HR WINDOW OF FAVORABLE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BUILD AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE THAT ADVERTISES THE MAIN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION BECOMING ORPHANED THIS WEEKEND. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWCOVER IN THE REGION AND THE RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY EXTREMELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MARINE... WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY...LEADING TO A GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OF WAVES OVER LAKE HURON. WHILE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IT THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...AND WAVES BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....CB MARINE.......DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).