Allouez, MI, United States (49805) |
| Lat: 47.29N | Lon: 88.41W | Wx Zone: MIZ003 | ICAO Used: | County: Keweenaw | Forecast Office: KMQT | FIPS: 026083 |
Allouez, MI Area Forecast Discussion:
000 FXUS63 KMQT 081142 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 642 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 512 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR UPR LAKES THIS MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT OVR WI/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVR MENOMINEE COUNTY. PRETTY QUIET OTHERWISE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVR PLAINS DOMINATES WEATHER OVR UPR MI. RIDGE WILL STAY IN THE VCNTY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO NORTHERN UPR MI LATE ON THURSDAY. LK EFFECT BECOMES PRIMARY STORY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SURGE OF WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLING IS BRIEF THOUGH WITH TEMPS RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 512 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 IN THE NEAR TERM...BAND OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS MAY IMPACT FAR NORTH CWA. 30-35 KT WINDS AT 500-1000FT HAVE LEAD TO WILDLY RANGING TEMPS. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED FM THE WINDS HAVE FALLEN BLO ZERO...MAINLY OVR INTERIOR SW CWA. WHERE WINDS HAVE CONTINUED MOST OF THE NIGHT READINGS HAVE STAYED AOA 10 ABOVE WITH EVEN SOME 20S ON THE KEWEENAW. WINDS REMAIN STEADY...AND FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPS SHOULD AS WELL. TODAY AND TONIGHT... SFC RIDGE OVR THE NORTHERN PLAINS SETTLES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS KEEPS UPR MICHIGAN WITHIN WEST FLOW ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE. BANK OF STRATOCU OVR FAR SE PORTION OF LK SUPERIOR COULD GRAZE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AT TIMES AS WINDS STAY JUST ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. GIVEN GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...MIXING HEIGHTS TO 925-900MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT TOUGH TO GAGE. SOME LINGERING AFFECTS FM THE DEPARTING RIDGE WITH PWATS ALONG SW FRINGE OF CWA BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. WEST WINDS IN THE BLYR STAY UP THOUGH AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO SINGLE DIGITS WITH SIMILAR WIND REGIME...SO LIKE THIS MORNING... AREAS THAT DECOUPLE FM WIND SHOULD TRY TO RADIATE OUT. INCREASED TEMPS ALONG SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR INTO THE 20S GIVEN PERSISTENT WEST WINDS. THURSDAY... ARCTIC FRONT FCST TO SWING THROUGH FAR NORTH CWA AFT 21Z PER BLEND OF GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN. FCST SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS INDICATE DRY AIR DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY AFTN AT CMX. BY 21Z...MOISTURE INCREASES BTWN 925MB AND 850MB...BUT SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS DRY WITH WELL MIXED INVERTED-V LOOK. TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP AFT 21Z FALL TO -12C SO SHOULD START SEEING SOME LGT SNOW SHOWERS FORM IN THE FAR WEST AND KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY INSISTENT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMS AFT 21Z ON KEWEENAW. ALSO SEEMS THAT ANY PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS MAY BE STRETCH UNTIL WINDS TURN NORTHERLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. TWEAKED POPS DOWN A NOTCH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY. AHEAD OF FRONT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL CWA. FALLING TEMPS WILL ONLY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 512 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 A BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF QUEBEC WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MODERATE LES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVER UPPER MI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A LAYER OF LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY AIR IN ALL BUT THE LOWEST LVLS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS AT A MINIMUM...LIKELY LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. AS THIS BAND IS PASSING THROUGH...FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE ONSET OF LES LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT COULD POSE SOME DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST LES. FIRST...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LES INCLUDE INVERSION HEIGHTS AOB 825MB...PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NEGATIVES FOR THE EVENT ARE THE VERY COLD LLVL TEMPS AND SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL FAVORED WIND DIRECTION...SO WILL FOCUS ON THESE TWO FEATURES. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A DECREASE FROM APPROXIMATELY -10C TO -24C OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES IS THAT THE TIME FRAME OF THE -12 TO -16C MAX SNOW GROWTH LAYER LINING UP WITH MAXIMUM VV WILL BE ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW RATIOS REMAINING AT 20:1 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS DOWN. THOUGH WIND DIRECTION VARIES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN MODELS...THE DIFFERENCES HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE THE MOST FAVORED SNOW BANDS DEVELOP. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER WITH A FAVORED LES LAYER WIND DIRECTION OF ABOUT 340 DEGREES. ON THE OTHER END...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE AROUND 000 TO 010 DEGREES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE LAST DAY OF NEARLY ALL MODELS TO SHARPEN THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE VEERED LOW LVL WIND PROFILE SEEMS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LES FOCUS ON THE NORTH WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW TOTALS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR THE NORTH FAVORED SNOW BELTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. LES WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY DROP AS A LOW LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO COLD FOR BEST SNOW GROWTH. STILL EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH IN THE NORTH FAVORED WIND BELTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF. LES RETURNS SATURDAY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN UPPER MI AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST NORTH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY EVENING...INVERSIONS FALLING BELOW 900MB AND DRY 925-850MB AIR WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE LES TO ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS FAILING TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS INTERIOR WEST HALF. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER TRANQUIL AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN 500MB TROUGH STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MID LVL RIDGE TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS GENERAL PACIFIC FLOW RESUMES AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN WHILE REMAINING OVER THE GULF STATES. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A WEAK...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING OFF OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING. IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR A SHIFT OUT OF THIS CONVOLUTED PATTERN AND INTO A MORE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED WINTER PATTERN...BUT IT IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 641 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KSAW BEFORE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS MIX TO SFC BY LATE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL RETURN AT KSAW TONIGHT AS SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK...NEXT CHANCE OF ADVERSE FLYING CONDITIONS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO UPR MICHIGAN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 512 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENTLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR LK SUPERIOR AND BLYR WINDS 30-35 KTS. MAJORITY OF MARINE PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...SO WILL KEEP GALE GUSTS MENTIONED RIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SINCE GUSTS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY GALE FORCE HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES. COLDER AIR/INCREASED MIXING ON THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A FEW GALE GUSTS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLA SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA